Movie Opening Forecasting Model
  • Hi Folks,

    Those following the threads on the "Playing & Strategy" maybe aware that I have developed a regression model to predict the opening weekend box office for movies.

    I'm opening this thread to gather all the movie predictions so that I can run them through my model, and provide a prediction.
    In particular I'm looking for the following predictions numbers. 

    RS, MTC, LA Times, Variety, THR, EW, Box Office, Coming Soon, Box Office Guru, Box Office Mojo

    If everyone does a little foot work, we can all benefit from a more accurate BO prediction.  Thanks to RogerMore who provided 4 years of data, my model has been trained on those.  So the more I get the better the prediction.

  • Prediction from the regression model for NONST:$24.10M, SOGOD: $22.43M.

    This is based on the following forecasts provided by RogerMore:

    TickerTitleRelease
    Date
    # TheatresRSMTCLA TimesVarietyTHREWBox OfficeComing SoonBox Office GuruBox Office Mojo
    NONSTNon Stop2014-02-283090 262025202329272425
    SOGODSon of God2014-02-283258 232017222018182028
  • Difference between regression model and weekend estimates were, NONST: 19.67%, SOGOD: 15.36%

    A little worse thatn 18% for NONST and much better for SOGOD.  If the model gets this consistently, it could be useful.
    MTCLA TimesVarietyTHREWBox OfficeComing SoonBox Office GuruBox Office MojoOW (Sunday Estimate)PredictDifference
    262025202329272425302419.67%
    23201722201818202826.52215.36%
  • Is this still a thing going?
  • Dropped it a few years ago, working my other project as part of my thesis.
    I'm using statistics techniques to forecast your US election. :)
  • That's going to be an interesting one.  It's the most messed up one I've seen.


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